HOW UNSTABLE? VOLATILITY AND THE GENUINELY NEW PARTIES IN EASTERN EUROPE Abstract. Measuring of party system stability in Eastern Europe during the first decade of democratic elections

Measuring of party system stability in Eastern Europe during the first decade of democratic elections presents problems. The traditional quantitative measure – volatility – does not distinguish between the dynamics among incumbent parties and the rise of genuinely new ones. I propose a new additional measure – success of genuinely new parties – and compare it to volatility. The subsequent performance of initially successful genuinely new parties is analysed. While volatility has been remarkably high in East European countries, the genuinely new parties have in general not been very successful. Instability of party systems in the region stems rather from the inner dynamics of already incumbent actors than from the rise of new contenders. How long does it take in newly established democracies to develop reasonably stable party systems? More specifically, do party systems in East Central Europe show signs of stabilization? The answer to this question depends on using adequate indices. In addition to the traditional volatility of votes, this study focuses on the success of genuinely new parties, those that are not offshoots of existing parties or creations of already well-known politicians. Aggregate volatility [1] has long been the standard indicator used for measuring party system stability. It has been utilized to assess change or persistence in Western Europe (e.g., Pedersen 1979; Bartolini & Mair 1989; Crewe & Denver 1985; Ersson & Lane 1998), and also for emerging multiparty systems of postcommunist countries (Korasteleva 2000; Krupavičius 1999; Mainwaring 1998; Rose et al. 1998; Tóka 1997). Volatility has led to almost universal conclusion that the level of instability in those new democracies is significantly higher than in Western Europe. Yet, high levels of volatility contradict authors who emphasize consolidating and stabilizing tendencies in Eastern European party systems (e.g., Olson 1993; Ágh 1998; Chan 2001).